Telegram from Catalonia: what’s next after the vote?
On Sunday 12 of May, Catalans went to the polls to cast their vote for the ‘elecciones autonómicas’, meaning the regional elections.
This vote was particularly important because the national government is above water thanks to the votes of 7 MPs of Junts (‘Together’, in Catalan), the Catalan parties led by fugitive MEP Carles Puigdemont.
AT A GLANCE
The main parties of the elections were the Socialist Party of Catalunya (PSC, led by Mr Salvador Illa, close to President Pedro Sánchez, 28% of the vote), Junts x Catalunya (right wing pro-separatist party, led by Mr Puigdemont, 21%), Republican Left (ERC, also pro-separatist party, 14%).
Centre-right PP, that was never strong in the region, got 10% (multiplying by 5 their previous result, in terms of seats), closely followed by far-right VOX, with 8%. Far-left Comuns Sumar obtained 6%.
Final remarks on this: Catalan Alliance (AC), a pro-separatism, far–right and xenophobic party created in 2020, obtained 2 seats and entered the ‘Parlament’. On an opposite note, liberal-democratic party Ciudadanos, that actually had been born in Catalunya, won’t retain any of its current 6 seats and with 0,72% of the vote has virtually disappeared in the region, at least for now.
Although highly divided, all the pro-separatist forces together obtained around 38%. This is not enough to force a new chapter in the ‘procès’, however the separatist movement seems far from being over.
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
There are four main options:
1) PSC manages to form a left-wing government with ERC and Comuns Sumar
If on the one hand this would be an extremely fragile government (only 1 more seat than the absolute majority, plus ERC is fully separatist and PSC and Comuns Sumar are not), on the other hand it is true that Mr Puigdemont would not be satisfied, and could then threaten Mr Sánchez to remove his support in the national Congress.
However, by doing that Mr Puigdemont would be bringing down the national government — but in any case he would stay out of both the national and the regional assemblies.
2) PSC forms a coalition government with Junts, so Mr Sánchez pleases Mr Puigdemont (who after the amnesty, could indeed ask to become the President, despite having obtained less votes than Mr Illa, blackmailing the national government)
3) A minority government is formed, possibly led by Mr Illa
4) Mr Illa offers all the political forces a compromise and builds a wide coalition (unlikely).
Catalonia is the fourth region per GDP per capita (out of 17). Moreover, the region had gone through turbulent political times, following the aftermath of the unconstitutional referendum in 2017, combined with a long, deep polarisation in Spain.
The turn–out was 58%, while the average of the elections since 2010 is 66%.
